The wolf is at the door

Deffeyes hits the nail on the head when he clearly details what petroleum industry insiders already know - it's not "if" global oil production will peak, it's "when." After years of warning about the imminent demise of cheap oil supplies, experts are now splitting hairs about whether or not inexpensive oil production will peak in this decade or the next. The author's easy-going, occasionally humorous prose makes the bad news easier to take, but either way, a serious global oil crisis is looming on the horizon.

Deffeyes energizes his readers by sweeping us easily through the denser strata of the complexities and developmental progress that built "Big Oil," but he also warns of relying on technology to save us in the future. Unlike many technological optimists, this life-long veteran of the industry concludes that new innovations like gas hydrates, deep-water drilling, and coal bed methane are unlikely to replace once-abundant petroleum in ease of use, production, and versatility. The Era of Carbon Man is ending.

A no-nonsense oilman blessed with a sense of humor, Deffeyes deftly boils his message down to the quick. Easily-produced petroleum is reaching its nadir, and although they are clean and renewable, energy systems like geothermal, wind and solar power won't solve our energy needs overnight. "Hubbert's Peak" represents an important aspect of the energy crisis, but it is only one factor in this multi-faceted problem that includes biosphere degradation, global warming, per-capita energy decline, and a science/industry community intolerant of new approaches to energy technology research and development. An exciting new book by the Alternative Energy Institute, Inc., "Turning the Corner: Energy Solutions for the 21st Century," addresses all of the components associated with the energy dilemma and is also available on Amazon.com.

Anyone who is concerned about what world citizens, politicians, and industry in the United States and international community must do to ensure a smooth transition from dependence on dangerous and polluting forms of energy to a more vital and healthier world, needs to read these books. Future generations rely on the decisions we make today.

timely and informative

In Hubbert's Peak, Kenneth Deffeyes contends that sometime in the very near future, in fact within the next 10 years, world oil production will peak and then steadily decline. In the author's opinion, no amount of exploration or technological advance will change the fact that world oil supplies will rapidly diminish. Thus, a fossil fuel created over millions of years will have been exhausted in little more than century after it was first put to use. The economic and geopolitical consequences of this prediction, if realized, are exceedingly obvious but largely unappreciated by the American public. Deffeyes' analysis would appear to be solidly based: his calculations are derived from the work of geologist H. King Hubbert, who in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. King was accurate enough, as the actual peak occur?red in 1970.
Beyond this serious and timely message, the author gives an informative breakdown of the petroleum industry? how oil is formed, discovered, and recovered. In the process, he manages to introduce a number of basic scientific concepts that are handy to all. While the text is kept simple, Deffeyes respects the reader's judgment by including various graphs and plots of raw data, and a notes section supplies equations for anyone wishing to take issue with the mathematics of his argument.
The book is written in a conversational tone, which makes for easy going and gives one the relaxed feeling of sitting in on an informal classroom lecture. Deffeyes has a sense of humor that usually serves to lubricate the reading process, although at times his sideshow commentary tends to distract from an otherwise important message. Another complaint concerns the relatively scant treatment of alternative energy sources: after thoroughly arguing that crisis is imminent, he offered little insight in the way of actually solving the problem.
Criticisms aside, this book is a valuable read. Given recent world events associated with the Middle East, the present economic climate, and the current absence of an acceptable energy replacement, it is high time Americans give the oil issue their undivided attention. Hubbert's Peak provides a worthy starting point.

Helps You to Assess an Important Topic Objectively

This is an important book for anyone wanting an informed view of the impending oil shortage. For me the book has significant strengths and a couple of relative weaknesses. First, Deffeyes discusses the methodology for forecasting oil resources and production rates over time (including footnotes, Chap 8). Deffeyes does not provide any new estimates, but references (Ref 2, Chap 1) published predictions up to 1998. Second, Deffeyes provides a detailed description of the geology and engineering methods for oil discovery and extraction. For the lay reader this could be heavy going, but Deffeyes does a good job of providing relevant information in a stimulating manner, often through amusing asides, which work most of the time. This material establishes that it is most unlikely there is a major oil field "waiting" to be discovered. Third, the book is well referenced which encourages further exploration of this important topic. For me some questions were unanswered. It is shown (p5) that production will peak in about 2004 to 2009, but there is no discussion of how the increasing cost of oil may affect future consumption and the ultimate end of the oil era (2075, 2100 ?). As oil impacts mainly on road transport there is no discussion of hydrogen-based (eg fuel cells) alternative energy sources (Chap 10). There is very little discussion of Natural Gas (closely related to oil as a resource and able to provide efficient electricity generation)and the scope for it to ease the transition out of the oil era. The discussion of alternative energy sources (Chap 10) is rather superficial and contains no economic or environmental assessment. On balance, this is a valuable contribution to everyone's assessment of their individual and our collective futures.